
Armed conflict spreads throughout Hauran.
The Kurdish People’s Defense Force(PDF) is formed in Qamishli and begins evicting Regime security forces in limited armed skirmishes.
Harakat al-Salasyl(HaS) is formed as a conglomeration of fundamentalist rebel groups in Hauran and jihadist Tigridean groups crossing over into Eastern Hauran to arm and train the precursor rebel groups.
The Free Haurani Army(FHA) is officially formed in tribal controlled rural areas near Idlib, Homs, Hama, Dar’a, Suwayda, and Busra. The FHA quickly expands in size, rolling in many local brigades under its ranks.
Deir ez-Zor falls from Haurani regime control and comes under HaS governance, marking its first major offensive victory.
HaS establishes Islamist fundamentalist government structures, gaining international notoriety.
HaS employs makeshift MLRS against Haurani forces, prompting widespread deployments of tactical air defense in the east. Hauran’s air defense systems prove ineffective at countering rocket fire.
Rumors circulate that HaS is operating MiG-21s out of Deir ez-Zor. Western intelligence dismisses this but acknowledges defections of HAA and HAF personnel, enabling HaS to operate captured equipment.
A Haurani SA-2 shoots down a Byzantauran reconnaissance aircraft that accidentally violated Hauran’s ADIZ.
The U.S. condemns the attack, but UNSC action is blocked by Olvana and Donovia vetoes.
Donovia strikes a deal with the Haurani president and begins offloading SA-11, SA-13, SA-15 and SA-19 systems, infantry equipment, and modern vehicles through Latakia and Damascus International.
HaS launches the siege of Qamishli in the northeast, with MLRS fire spilling over into Byzantaura.
Qamishli falls to HaS; reports of mass killings emerge. The PDF begins a major offensive against HaS and requests western support. The US sends undisclosed resources to Qamishli to assist the PDF.
The regime loses effective control of Idlib, Dar’a, Nawa, Al Suwayda, Jisr ash-Shughur, Al Bab, and several Damascus suburbs.
Evidence of chemical weapons use against rebels surfaces on social media and is confirmed by western intelligence. The FHA requests western support in response. The US sends undisclosed resources into Hauran to advise the FHA.
Byzantaura invokes Article 4 consultations and invites NATO to establish a 30 km buffer zone. NATO responds by deploying its VJTF and Patriot batteries to the Byzantauran-Haurani border, and fails to reach consensus on invoking Article 5.
HaS consolidates control in the east, establishing administration in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa. Foreign fighters continue entering via Tigris.
Donovia increases naval shipments of vehicles, ammunition, and SAM components into Latakia. Vogel Group PMC units appear near Damascus International Airport.
U.S. Intelligence confirms regime chemical weapons are moved to western depots under Donovian oversight. Satellite imagery shows mixing equipment at front-line brigades.
HaS rockets strike Byzantauran towns, killing civilians. Byzantaura’s parliament demands NATO extend enforcement inside Hauran.
NATO enforces a 30 km buffer zone inside Haurani borders with primarily U.S., German, and Byzantauran fighters patrolling to ensure no Haurani or Donovian aircraft violate the airspace and monitor for regime or HaS fires inside the zone.
HaS propaganda claims credit for killing “infidels” across the frontier, boosting global recruitment.
Donovian Su-27 and MiG-29 detachments conduct flights over Latakia; an S-300 battery is deployed near Tartus Naval Base.
Undisclosed U.S. intelligence assets send evidence to Washington of regime chemical weapon use in Dar’a suburbs, with orders suggesting further use in Idlib.
HaS attempts breakout westward from Raqqa toward Aleppo countryside; regime collapses in rural districts.
Non-HaS brigades, including the FHA, appeal for direct kinectic U.S. support, warning HaS will dominate the insurgency. The US responds with a brokered strategy conference of several rebel brigade leaders in Byzantaura in Adana. The conference results in arrangements for humanitarian and intelligence based aid, as well as additional undisclosed U.S. advisors.
Donovia declares any attack on regime forces illegitimate, reinforcing regime logistics under the guise of “civilian evacuations.”
Byzantauran towns again hit by MLRS fire; artillery duels escalate. NATO fighters intercept regime helicopters approaching the buffer.
March 3: Near midnight, Tigris Air Flight 4032 originating from Baghdad International Airport is shot down on approach to Gaziantep Oğuzeli Airport during inclement weather. The Haurani regime blames FHA units operating captured SAMs in Manbij. Within 24 hours, western investigators conclude the aircraft was downed by a Haurani Army SA-11 IVO Minakh, tasked to defend against NATO flights—an act in clear violation of the 30 km buffer zone.
March 4: HaS conducts VBIED attacks at multiple Byzantauran border crossings, claiming Byzantaura deliberately shot down Flight 4032 because it carried three HaS field commanders. Western intelligence later assesses the commanders were coordinating arms flows with Tigridean and Gandhari jihadist networks.
March 5: The Haurani regime launches chemical attacks on FHA units in Darayya, with U.S. Special Forces advisors caught in the strike. Classified reporting sent to Washington confirms this as deliberate chemical weapons employment.
March 6: The North Atlantic Council meets in emergency session. By consensus, NATO determines the downing of Flight 4032 constitutes an armed attack against a member state. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty is invoked for the first time since 9/11. The official communiqué cites the airline shootdown as the casus belli.
March 7: In Washington, President John President addresses the nation. He commits U.S. forces under NATO obligations but also outlines additional American objectives, citing:
Operation Liberty Rain declared:
Regime Change: degrade Hauran’s C2, IADS, and elite units.
Counter-HaS: prevent HaS entrenchment, deny heavy weapons, and eliminate leadership nodes.
Donovia response: deploys expeditionary AD and fighter detachments to Latakia, Tartus and Damascus, pledging to defend regime “territorial integrity.”
Lines drawn: NATO air assets surge into Byzantaura and the Mediterranean; Donovia establishes its own AD umbrella in western Hauran.