Classification: NEUTRAL (Government: Pro-REDFOR, Opposition: Mixed)
Region: Eastern Mediterranean / Levant
Capital: Damascus
Population: 22.5 million (pre-war: 23.7 million)
Area: 185,180 km²
Government Type: Ba’athist Republic (Contested)
Head of State: President Bashar al-Assad
Date Updated: December 2013
¶ Executive Summary
The Haurani Arab Republic is experiencing a devastating civil conflict that began in March 2011. What started as peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms has devolved into a complex multi-party war involving government forces, moderate opposition groups, extremist organizations, and foreign proxies. As of late 2013, the government controls approximately 40-50% of the country, with various armed groups controlling the remainder.
The conflict has created the worst humanitarian crisis in the region, with over 120,000 dead, 6.5 million internally displaced, and 2.3 million refugees. The economy has collapsed, losing over 60% of GDP. Chemical weapons have been deployed multiple times during 2013.
¶ Key Facts
- Official Language(s): Arabic (official), Kurdish, Armenian, Aramaic
- Currency: Haurani Pound (SYP) - severe devaluation
- GDP: $33.4 billion (down from $60.2 billion in 2010)
- GDP Per Capita: $1,535 (2013 est.)
- Time Zone: UTC+2 (UTC+3 DST)
- Internet TLD: .sy
- Calling Code: +963
- ISO Code: SY/SYR
¶ Physical Geography
Location: Eastern Mediterranean coast, bordered by Byzantauria (north), Sumeria (east), Gileadia (south), Tyriana (southwest), and Phoenicia (west)
Borders:
- North: Byzantauria (822 km)
- East: Sumeria (605 km)
- South: Gileadia (375 km)
- Southwest: Tyriana (76 km) - Golan Heights disputed
- West: Phoenicia (375 km)
- West: Mediterranean Sea (193 km coastline)
Terrain Features:
- Coastal Mountains: Jabal al-Nusayriyah (Nusayri Mountains)
- Eastern Mountains: Anti-Lebanon range
- Rivers: Euphrates, Tigris (northern corner), Orontes
- Desert: Syrian Desert (55% of territory)
- Fertile Areas: Euphrates valley, coastal plain, Hauran plateau
¶ Climate Zones
| Region | Climate Type | Temperature Range | Rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal | Mediterranean | 10-32°C | 750-1000mm |
| Interior | Semi-arid continental | 0-40°C | 200-400mm |
| Desert | Arid desert | -3-45°C | <150mm |
| Mountains | Highland | -5-28°C | 600-1200mm |
¶ Strategic Geography
graph TD
A[Damascus - Capital] --> B[Latakia - Regime Stronghold]
A --> C[Aleppo - Contested]
A --> D[Homs - Battleground]
A --> E[Deir ez-Zor - Oil Region]
C --> F[Idlib - Opposition]
E --> G[Raqqa - Extremist Control]
D --> H[Palmyra - Desert Crossroads]
B --> I[Tartus - Naval Base]
- President: Bashar al-Assad (since 2000)
- Prime Minister: Wael al-Halqi (since 2012)
- Cabinet: Ba’ath Party dominated, emergency powers
- Presidential Powers: Absolute in regime-controlled areas
- Succession: Hereditary in practice (Assad family)
- People’s Council: 250 seats (largely ceremonial)
- Status: SUSPENDED in opposition areas
- Elections: Scheduled 2012 elections held only in government areas
- Legal Opposition: Tolerated parties have no real power
- System: Mix of civil law, Islamic law, and emergency courts
- Independence: None - subservient to executive
- Military Courts: Try civilians for “security” offenses
- Opposition Areas: Local Sharia courts emerging
¶ Political Landscape
Government Coalition:
- Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party - Ruling party since 1963
- National Progressive Front - Coalition of permitted parties
- Military-Security Apparatus - Real power center
Opposition Groups (Fragmented):
- National Coalition - Internationally recognized opposition
- Free Haurani Army (FHA) - Loose military umbrella
- Harakat al-Salasyl - Rising extremist movement
- Kurdish PDF - Autonomous in northeast
- Other Jihadist Groups - Including Tanzim al-Qitar affiliates
¶ Administrative Divisions
- Governorates: 14 (government claims all, controls 6 fully)
- Districts: 65 (many with contested control)
- Sub-districts: 281 (local control varies daily)
¶ Government Forces Overview
Haurani Arab Army (Pre-war):
- Total Personnel: 295,000 active, 314,000 reserves
- Current Effective Strength: ~150,000-175,000
- Defections: 40,000-60,000 (mostly Sunni conscripts)
- Attrition Rate: Severe - avoiding decisive battles
- Reliable Units:
- Republican Guard: ~25,000 (elite, mostly Nusayri)
- 4th Armored Division: ~15,000 (regime protection)
- Special Forces: ~10,000 (offensive operations)
- Regular Divisions: Hollowed out, garrison duty only
- Equipment Losses: 40% of armor, widespread defections with equipment
Paramilitary Forces:
- National Defence Force: ~60,000 (local militias)
- Shabiha: ~10,000 (Nusayri irregular forces)
- Ba’ath Battalions: ~5,000 (party militia)
- Personnel: ~40,000 (high loyalty rate)
- Fixed Wing:
- MiG-29: ~30 operational
- MiG-23: ~50 operational
- Su-22/24: ~40 operational
- L-39: ~40 (adapted for ground attack)
- Helicopters:
- Mi-24/25: ~35 (workhorse of conflict)
- Mi-8/17: ~80 (barrel bomb deployment)
- Tactics: Indiscriminate bombing, barrel bombs
- Status: Largely inactive in civil war
- Bases: Tartus (Donovian facility), Latakia
- Assets: Coastal defense only
- Personnel: ~5,000
- Status: CONFIRMED USE - Multiple deployments 2013
- Stockpile: Sarin, VX, mustard gas (locations unknown)
- Delivery: Artillery shells, aerial bombs, rockets
- Pattern: Increasing frequency of use
¶ Military Doctrine Evolution
2011-2012: Traditional combined arms failing against insurgency
2013 Adaptation: “Siege and Starve” tactics
- Surround opposition areas
- Artillery/air bombardment
- Prevent food/medical supplies
- Force displacement or surrender
¶ Economic Collapse
GDP Decline:
- 2010: $60.2 billion
- 2013: $33.4 billion (-45%)
- Currency: 47 SYP/USD → 315 SYP/USD
Key Sectors Status:
| Sector | Pre-War Share | 2013 Status |
|---|---|---|
| Oil/Gas | 25% GDP | -90% (fields in opposition hands) |
| Agriculture | 17% GDP | -50% (fighting in farmlands) |
| Industry | 22% GDP | -70% (Aleppo devastated) |
| Tourism | 12% GDP | -100% (complete collapse) |
War Economy:
- Checkpoint taxation by all sides
- Smuggling networks (fuel, weapons, food)
- Kidnapping industry
- International aid diversion
- Captagon drug production
¶ Resource Control (Late 2013)
pie title Territory and Resource Control
"Government" : 40
"Opposition FHA" : 25
"Extremist Groups" : 20
"Kurdish Forces" : 10
"Contested" : 5
¶ Transportation
- Road Network Major highways cut, checkpoints everywhere
- Damascus International Only functioning airport, limited flights
- Aleppo International Closed due to fighting
- Ports Latakia/Tartus operational for regime supply
- Railways 90% non-functional due to sabotage
¶ Utilities Crisis
| Service | Damascus | Aleppo | Opposition Areas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 6-8 hrs/day | 2-4 hrs/day | Generator only |
| Water | Intermittent | Scarce | Wells/trucks |
| Internet | Monitored | Sporadic | Satellite only |
| Fuel | Shortages | Black market | Smuggled |
¶ Medical System
- Hospitals: 60% damaged/destroyed
- Doctors: Mass exodus (50% fled)
- Opposition areas: Field hospitals only
- Government tactic: Targeting medical facilities
¶ Demographics Under War
Pre-War Composition:
- Arab Sunni: 60%
- Nusayri: 12%
- Christian: 10%
- Kurdish: 9%
- Druze: 3%
- Others: 6%
Sectarian Dynamics:
- Nusayris: Regime backbone, targeted by opposition
- Sunnis: Majority in opposition, urban areas emptying
- Christians: Fearful, some support regime for protection
- Kurds: Establishing autonomy in northeast
¶ Displacement Crisis
graph LR
A[Total Population: 22.5M] --> B[Internally Displaced: 6.5M]
A --> C[Refugees: 2.3M]
A --> D[In Need of Aid: 9.3M]
C --> E[Phoenicia: 850,000]
C --> F[Gileadia: 570,000]
C --> G[Byzantauria: 500,000]
C --> H[Sumeria: 200,000]
¶ Humanitarian Conditions
Besieged Areas: 250,000+ civilians trapped
Food Security: 6.8 million food insecure
Medical: Polio outbreak, medicine shortages
Education: 2.8 million children out of school
- Military: Advisors arrive September 2013, expanding presence
- Key Figure: Bassel al-Assad coordinating with Donovian forces
- Diplomatic: UN Security Council vetoes
- Economic: Fuel supplies, credit lines
- Naval: Maintaining Tartus facility
- Military: Revolutionary Guard advisors, weapons, funding
- Proxy Forces: Jundallah (5,000-8,000 fighters)
- Economic: Oil shipments, credit lines
- Strategic Goal: Maintain “resistance axis”
- Forces: 5,000-8,000 experienced fighters
- Role: Spearhead operations (Qusayr victory)
- Impact: Tipping balance in key battles
- Political: “Friends of Syria” group
- Military: Non-lethal aid, considering weapons
- Training: Gileadia/Byzantauran-based programs
- Constraints: Extremist infiltration fears
- Kingdom of Najd: Weapons, funding to Islamic groups
- Emirate of Dawha: Supporting Brotherhood factions
- State of Khaleej: Private donations to extremists
- Competition: Proxy rivalry through different groups
- Border: Open for opposition logistics
- Camps: 500,000+ refugees
- Military: Intelligence support, allowing transit
- Political: Hosting opposition meetings
¶ Government Perspective
Internal Threats:
-
Moderate Opposition (FHA)
- Strength: Declining, fragmenting
- Areas: Urban pockets, southern front
- Threat Level: MEDIUM and declining
-
Extremist Groups
- Strength: Rising rapidly
- Areas: North and east
- Threat Level: HIGH and increasing
-
Kurdish Autonomy
- Strength: Consolidated control
- Areas: Northeast
- Threat Level: MEDIUM long-term
¶ Regional Stability Impact
- Refugee Crisis: Destabilizing neighbors
- Extremist Haven: Training ground for global jihad
- Sectarian Spillover: Phoenicia, Sumeria affected
- WMD Proliferation: Chemical weapons precedent
¶ Current Dynamics
timeline
title 2013 Key Events
March : Raqqa falls to opposition
April : Chemical weapons reports multiply
May : Government offensive in Qusayr
June : Jundallah involvement public
July : Multiple chemical incidents
September : Donovian military advisors arrive
October : Bassel al-Assad leads key operations
November : Salasyl consolidating territory
December : Barrel bomb campaign intensifies
¶ Intelligence Assessment
- Chemical weapons sites and stockpiles
- Foreign fighter entry routes
- Regime contingency planning
- Alanian/Jundallah force levels
- Opposition command structures
- Humanitarian access routes
- Regime Fragmentation: Nusayri statelet on coast
- Opposition Victory: Likely extremist dominated
- Partition: De facto ethnic/sectarian cantons
- Prolonged Stalemate: Most likely, years more fighting
